Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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The underlying message here is that the Fed is rounding for third and heading for home plate. But they are not finished playing yet.
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The bottom line is it is a very solid report, but with continued inflationary pressure building up, it will make it easy for the Fed to conclude (Tuesday's meeting) with a quarter-point increase,
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Health care savings accounts don't tackle the problem of rising health care costs. This is not an attempt to rein in the cost of health care. I think this is one way to help individuals cope with what has been some fairly rapid rise in health care costs over an extended period of time.
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I think the Fed will look at the core number and determine that it was understated, and still raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at the meeting on November 1.
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Inflation, it's been a clean sweep for July. We learned earlier this month wages were unchanged, yesterday producer prices fell again, and this morning you're right on the money, relatively benign consumer price inflation report. No problem.
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The economy is off to a strong start in 2006 and has fully rebounded from the fourth-quarter setback.
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Overall, this was kind of a vanilla report. These are solid numbers, but the market had already absorbed the fact May was a good month.
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He agrees that another ... rate hike at the March 28 (meeting) will be needed.
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At the same time, many retailers and the automakers have had good June numbers, despite the rise in oil prices (over the last month), ... Overall, there's some relief right now that the economy is indeed strong, but not overheating.
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The economy is regaining momentum and will have a very solid first half of the year. We all feel more confident than we did three months ago, when we were still wondering about the impact of the hurricanes.
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The bottom line is that Greenspan is in no way signaling that the Fed's tightening ballgame against inflation is nearly over.
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The NABE panel sees the economy roaring back in early 2006 following the fourth quarter's tepid 1.1 percent growth.
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The stock and bond markets are looking at the report and seeing the signs of strength, and they know the Fed is doing the same.
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If we hadn't had Katrina we'd be saying what a bad hurricane (Rita) was, but in the aftermath of Katrina we're saying, 'Boy, aren't we lucky,'