Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
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It's a very good report. That's good news post-hurricanes. It shows us the job market is alive and well.
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Overall, this was kind of a vanilla report. These are solid numbers, but the market had already absorbed the fact May was a good month.
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At the same time, many retailers and the automakers have had good June numbers, despite the rise in oil prices (over the last month), ... Overall, there's some relief right now that the economy is indeed strong, but not overheating.
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It was a good report right through. As you look through the report there is a noticeable absence of inflation on a broad basis. The numbers, if anything, are steady to lower on inflation and show that it just isn't at all a problem for the economy or the Fed.
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It's not a good sign when delinquencies rise, There are enough other positive things in the consumer sector to say this is not a signal for some significant retrenchment ... that could threaten the economy.
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An unemployment rate below 5 percent is a sign that the job market is getting tight. These kinds of job and wage numbers will keep consumers spending right into spring.
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His statements have set up a pause at the June meeting after they move in May. That doesn't mean we are done. He's leaving the door open to resume hikes at subsequent meetings.
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The results show a stable outlook among business owners for their own sales and profits during the next six months, which suggests they are adapting to higher energy prices and interest rates. Many, however, are taking aggressive steps to counter continued increases in costs for employees' health care coverage, which could mean reductions in benefits for some employees.
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If you take into account the revisions, the average for the last three months are still very strong. It's consistent with the housing starts number. People are still active in home buying. This decline in January is probably a month dip. It's a head-fake.
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Stocks and bonds rallied at first, but now have hemmed down. Stocks are coming off a superb day yesterday, so that may be a little profit taking.
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This is a very weak number and well below what everyone expected. It's not the kind of report the Fed likes to see, but I think they'll recognize that the economy is already rebounding and raise the federal funds target rate to 4.5 percent.
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Growth is stronger, but inflation is less, so it's still that great combination of strong economic growth with even less inflation than expected that's helping bonds.
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This is in spite of gasoline rebounding 10 to 15 cents in January. This also squares with the jobless claims data.
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Our forecasters expect the economy to shake off the effects of last year's hurricanes and surging oil prices.