Stuart Hoffman
Stuart Hoffman
economy fully start strong
The economy is off to a strong start in 2006 and has fully rebounded from the fourth-quarter setback.
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I think the Fed will move a quarter of a point at the end of June, then they may pause. I don't think they're going to stop. I don't think the ball game is over. I think if we are in the late innings and it's still a tie between the risks of higher inflation and slower growth, as Dick Fisher did say, this could go into extra innings.
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I think the Fed will look at the core number and determine that it was understated, and still raise rates by a quarter-percentage point at the meeting on November 1.
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It's a very good report. That's good news post-hurricanes. It shows us the job market is alive and well.
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It's not a good sign when delinquencies rise, There are enough other positive things in the consumer sector to say this is not a signal for some significant retrenchment ... that could threaten the economy.
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While energy prices are a major concern and price pressures are in the factory pipeline, business is still quite good.
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I thought it was a very favorable number for both Wall Street and Main Street, particularly paired with the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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It's clear that job growth in the last three months has been as slow as it has been in quite a while. It is a picture of a somewhat slower or weaker job market.