Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
balance boost current economic inventory
We're going to get an economic boost from not only production, but from inventory buildup during the current quarter, and probably for the balance of this year.
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The point is that mounting layoffs and weak consumer confidence will keep consumer spending fairly weak.
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We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
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Business spending is the Achilles heel of the economy, ... The economic baton needs to pass from consumers to businesses.
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The loss of confidence in the financial reporting of Corporate America could hurt both consumer and business spending, ... The reduced availability and higher cost of credit, as well as the desire to strengthen the balance sheet, could cause firms to postpone capital spending plans and accelerate layoffs.
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Businesses are going to be waiting and seeing. The most important factor is how consumers behave, ... The cost of capital is important, but in the final analysis, you've got to sell products. If you're not going to sell products, you're not going to need capacity.
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The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.
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Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest. Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker.
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Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.
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The economy has settled into a sustainable, self-reinforcing growth path, ... All major categories of the economy have contributed to economic growth. Now that businesses have begun to add to payrolls, the current expansion is self-reinforcing. Only external shocks, such as terrorist attacks or a surge in oil prices, could derail the recovery.
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It clearly tells us that consumers have and will continue to sustain and support economic growth, ... Consumers have really been the backbone of current economic growth and will continue to be a stabilizer for the balance of this year.
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If you want to really help the economy right away, the fastest way to do that is to have the government spend the money itself, ... The next step would be to give tax cuts to low- and middle-income people, who are more likely to spend the money.
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It's quite possible the Fed will have to turn around and raise rates.
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If they keep the word, the financial markets will like that, because the Fed has put itself in a self-imposed box. If they discard the word measured, they'll be saying they're free to do what they want.