Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
calls fourth given larger likely range scenario slow start third
Without a doubt, there will be a contraction in the third quarter's GDP of approximately 0.9 percent, ... Given the slow start in October, the most likely scenario calls for a larger contraction in the 2.8-percent range in the fourth quarter.
assuming corporate half hopefully likely market negative offset profits psychology rates rise second stock
Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.
demand early economic feeling future growth increase likely means next pain production run starting translated
Inventories really being run down to ground, but that means that any increase in demand in the future will be translated into more production and jobs. We're feeling the pain right now, but it means we're more likely to get economic growth starting early next year.
cuts economy economy-and-economics fastest government help likely money next spend step tax
If you want to really help the economy right away, the fastest way to do that is to have the government spend the money itself, ... The next step would be to give tax cuts to low- and middle-income people, who are more likely to spend the money.
bank central election employment fall hike inflation interest likely pricing rate wants
Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.
assume desires mistake
I think we should know about candidates' desires and views, but I think it would be a mistake to assume that they will become reality.
advantage boils continuing fence housing jumping low mortgage people rates sitting
It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they're still historically very low, ... We're continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of these low rates before they go back up.
attack collected data economy fact knew numbers seems
We knew the data collected after the attack was going to be weak, but I was a little dumbfounded by the fact that the numbers even before the attack were awfully weak, ... Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums.
employment increases indicator key months three
To me, the key indicator is employment. We need to see at least three months of pretty hefty increases in employment before we'll be able to say we're out of woods,
almost guess historic lead market rule stock time
This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, ... I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.
continue expectation hopefully improve numbers recession
The expectation is that the NAPM numbers should continue to improve and that the manufacturing recession is hopefully going away.
economic recovery terrorist
Without the terrorist attacks, we would be experiencing economic recovery in this quarter.
common joke last market predict predicted problem stock tends
The problem is that the stock market tends to predict downturns or upturns too early. The common joke is that the stock market predicted 11 out of the last 9 recessions.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.