Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
calls fourth given larger likely range scenario slow start third
Without a doubt, there will be a contraction in the third quarter's GDP of approximately 0.9 percent, ... Given the slow start in October, the most likely scenario calls for a larger contraction in the 2.8-percent range in the fourth quarter.
economy expected jobs losing loss rate starting viewed
We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
affect auto business economy factors fall higher interest lay local people pick rates sales spending start state wrong
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
demand early economic feeling future growth increase likely means next pain production run starting translated
Inventories really being run down to ground, but that means that any increase in demand in the future will be translated into more production and jobs. We're feeling the pain right now, but it means we're more likely to get economic growth starting early next year.
fed might people raising rapidly slowly starts suspect
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
assume desires mistake
I think we should know about candidates' desires and views, but I think it would be a mistake to assume that they will become reality.
advantage boils continuing fence housing jumping low mortgage people rates sitting
It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they're still historically very low, ... We're continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of these low rates before they go back up.
attack collected data economy fact knew numbers seems
We knew the data collected after the attack was going to be weak, but I was a little dumbfounded by the fact that the numbers even before the attack were awfully weak, ... Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums.
employment increases indicator key months three
To me, the key indicator is employment. We need to see at least three months of pretty hefty increases in employment before we'll be able to say we're out of woods,
almost guess historic lead market rule stock time
This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, ... I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.
continue expectation hopefully improve numbers recession
The expectation is that the NAPM numbers should continue to improve and that the manufacturing recession is hopefully going away.
economic recovery terrorist
Without the terrorist attacks, we would be experiencing economic recovery in this quarter.
common joke last market predict predicted problem stock tends
The problem is that the stock market tends to predict downturns or upturns too early. The common joke is that the stock market predicted 11 out of the last 9 recessions.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.