Tim Evans
Tim Evans
consensus continue gold higher strong trend warning year
There is a very strong consensus that gold will continue its trend higher this year and that, in itself, is a warning sign.
begin behind develop employed higher potential push simple strong term turn widely
Profit-taking was the most widely employed term for what (happened Friday), but we see the potential for this simple turn to develop into a much more substantial decline, as the fundamentals behind the push higher were not all that strong to begin with.
bell consider higher perhaps price ready rung
We've rung the bell at $600 and now we're perhaps ready to consolidate before we consider higher price levels.
apply call economics economy-and-economics filled forth higher laws prices supply view
The laws of economics still apply and higher prices call forth more supply while dampening demand. The long view of the market's history, filled with booms and busts, is on our side.
both bush higher longer oil prices quo results short somewhat status term
A Bush status quo results in somewhat higher oil prices both in the short and the longer term in my view,
attempting clear crude market move oil
It is pretty clear they were attempting to move this oil into a crude oil market where there was already a surplus.
data expect fit model neat ought report surprising
It is a surprising report in just about all respects. But I think it is something that we have to expect in times like these that the data doesn't always fit into a neat little model of what we think ought to be happening.
attractive becomes both commodity emerging focus general gold less lows markets near oil since surrogate
Really, we've had some focus (on oil) since mid-February, when both markets made a significant low, and both markets had a near retest of those lows on Wednesday. Oil is emerging as the focus for the gold market as a surrogate for general commodity inflation. Without that kind of commodity inflation, then gold becomes a less attractive investment.
cash move profits rush
Really, it's just a rush to cash in profits on what was really a spectacular move higher.
activity along came coast gulf imports looking rebound
I was looking for a rebound in imports as some of the activity along the Gulf Coast came back to normal.
fact mechanism physical pricing risk shortage
The fact that their pricing mechanism is market-related minimizes the risk that a physical shortage would arise.
achieve balance bargain bit bottom drop hunting pick selling side trying
We're really just trying to achieve a little bit of a balance between follow-through selling after Tuesday's big drop and a little bit of bargain hunting on the other side of the ring, trying to pick a bottom here.
appear conditions current electricity last similar year
From the current snapshot, (electricity) conditions look a lot more similar to last year than they appear different.
damage major
If we were to see another major storm, we could have damage on damage.