Wayne Ayers
Wayne Ayers
corporate costs decline economy either labor prices profits rise wage
Productivity always slows as the economy slows. If labor and wage costs are still on the rise and productivity slows, either corporate profits decline or prices increase.
decline four last third
This is the third decline in the last four months. Again, it's worrisome, but not surprising.
almost balance bound increase last modest move past pickup production
This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year.
election elections moved sidelines sit soon
They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons.
businesses economic fourth growth levels losing otherwise risk
Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.
accounts auto certainly consumers entirely fourth giving growth helpful hung incentives ongoing outside remember strength
Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer.
circles financial instantly
He's instantly recognizable in financial circles and has international stature.
causing changes clear cut helpful labor lower market rates structural true unclear
It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market.
past recessions room
They've got more room to move, and they will move. That's what they've always done in past recessions and what they'll do again.
anytime events future plan
They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.
amount appears fairly fiscal means recession stimulus
There's already a lot of stimulus in the pipeline, and there's more to come. So there appears to be an ever-growing amount of fiscal stimulus, which means any recession will be fairly shallow.
business convinced data household labor market others picks quite reflected strong survey turning workers
At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is.
bond close expectation few given lows rebound recent sharp
You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished.
anyone decline genuine
It is a genuine shocker... I don't think anyone anticipated a decline of this magnitude.