William Dunkelberg
William Dunkelberg
business clearly cuts expressed good news pleasure rate sector signs small
The small business sector is clearly slowing, but there are no signs of 'disorder' in the exiting, ... This is good news for the Fed, which expressed its pleasure by hinting at rate cuts if things slowed too quickly.
costs credit few harder interest large
Credit costs more but is no harder to get. And because interest costs are not particularly large for most firms, there are few complaints.
compared last
Compared to last year, it's not a party, but historically, it's not so bad,
dollar economy employers employment fairly good holds increase net next percent period plan small three year
A net 17 percent of small employers plan to increase employment in the next three months, indicating that this year could be a fairly good period for manufacturing if the economy holds and the dollar weakens.
gets good historical perspective skewed
By historical standards, that's a good rate, but we're used to 5 and 6 (percent growth) now, so it's going to feel bad. Perspective gets skewed by prosperity.
aggregate appears broad cheap consumer consumers eating front holding ordering seems spending
Consumer spending seems to be holding up in the aggregate figures, but it appears that consumers are 'shaving' spending on a broad front ? still eating out but ordering the cheap entrees,
capital consumers double government spending
Consumers have not become timid, capital spending is double digit, and the government is spending more.
board business expansion fill job natural open owners people plans positions raising small struggling wages
Small business owners are raising wages to keep the people already on board and to make open positions more attractive. With many small firms struggling to fill job slots, it's natural to see expansion plans being put on hold.
above consensus domestic economic forecasts gross growth half percent predicting product running slower until wrong
The index suggests that the consensus economic forecasts predicting slower growth for the first half of 1999 will be wrong again. We look for growth in Gross Domestic Product to keep running above 3 percent until at least mid-year.
signals solid start
The index signals a solid start to 2006.
economy regarded speeds
The economy is slowing, but down to speeds previously regarded as 'too fast.'
crazy
It does not get much better (except in the crazy dot.com years).