William Sullivan
William Sullivan
accounting
It's impressive, but it's probably technical. We still have these accounting questions.
appears august defensive doubt hike later market meeting policy preparing rate
There's no doubt the market is on the defensive and is preparing for what appears to be inevitable. A rate hike at the August policy meeting later this month.
beginning exert indeed influence interest rates sector shows
It shows that the upturn in interest rates is indeed beginning to exert an influence on this rate-sensitive sector of the economy.
additional hikes labor market mean rate spare
If we do see additional absorption of spare labor market capacity, that could mean more rate hikes through the summer.
expensive holding money onto people starting
It was a little disappointing, but it is so expensive that there may be a lot of people holding onto their money for the 10-year and 30-year starting tomorrow.
factor key market rebound
The key factor weighing on the market is a rebound in stocks,
account afraid fall foreign investors leadership puts rule sharp taking view
I'm afraid we're not taking account of how foreign investors view this. That puts U.S. leadership at risk. I wouldn't rule out a sharp fall in the dollar.
anywhere basis december difficult interest january last month obviously points prove rates rose starting suspect weak
January could prove to be a very difficult month for bonds, just as December was. Long-term interest rates rose anywhere from 35 to 40 basis points last month, and we're obviously starting January on a very weak -- if not suspect -- note.
basis cut fed full interest percentage points rate rates
If the unemployment rate is weak, look for the Fed to cut interest rates by a full 50 basis points (half a percentage point).
bonds borrowing collective confront easing economy fed financial hostile improve improves markets monetary policy pressures today wisdom
Today the collective wisdom is that the economy will improve in the not-too-distant future, and that's hostile for bonds because it suggests that the Fed is done easing monetary policy and that financial markets may confront some interest-rate pressures as the economy improves and borrowing re-accelerates.
funds grips
We are also in the grips of liquidations by hedge funds and a lot of dealers don't want to see big exposures,
diminished economy evidence knew pressures price statistics
We knew the economy slowed down, and there was evidence from some of the monthly price statistics that inflationary pressures diminished during the period.
associated average early eliminated february gains industrial jones supply support three
We're down for three reasons. One, we still have the overhang of supply associated with the February refunding auctions, which were not distributed that well, ... Two, the early gains in the Dow Jones industrial average have eliminated some support for Treasury.
glow inflation month negative
We're basking in the glow of negative inflation in the month of November.