Alan Kral
Alan Kral
along basically bear bounce fed market question saw seen sharp trend yesterday
I think what we saw yesterday (Tuesday) was a bounce in the bear market. It could continue. There's no question there are going to be sharp rallies all the way along in here. But I think the trend has been as long as the Fed has been active, we've basically seen a down market with some rallies in it.
bond couple dropped economy fed gone hanging hopes job price quarter second slightly slower tail yields
I think the Fed is hanging its hopes on a couple of things. The bond price has dropped and yields have gone up and it is doing the job for them. . . the economy as a whole is slightly slower in the second quarter than it was in the first. There's hope that it will tail off to a more sustainable rate.
economy fed looking mean natural numbers past report slower
Once we get past the CPI, we'll be right into Fed watch. Just because the numbers report a slower economy doesn't' mean that we're looking at anything more than the natural seasonal response.
election
Overlying everything, you've got the election and there's a lot of uncertainty.
built cash earnings hope sky
The earnings stink. Earnings are down 16 percent, multiples are sky high, and the whole world is built on hope and a lot of cash flow.
demand environment prices returned
Now that the baseline of demand has returned and (oil) prices returned to around $20 to $21 a barrel, the environment is such that there will be a return to exploration, and Schlumberger will be a big beneficiary.
adding bad bias flowing gets money news underlying until upside
The AT&T thing gets some money flowing around into the mergers-and- acquisitions end of the business, which is adding some froth. The underlying bias is on the upside until bad news comes out, and I don't think the bad news is over.
basis change fed impact order people points quarter respond
I think people are just not going to respond to what the Fed does if it's only 25 basis points (a quarter point). In order to have any kind of impact he has to change people's actions, he has to change what people do.
coming couple financial fourth involved last leading looked morgan quarter retail stock
Two that need to be looked at are J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. J.P. Morgan because they have been heavily involved internationally over the last couple of years, and Merrill Lynch is the leading retail financial brokerage stock in the country. How they did coming out of the fourth quarter is very important.
anticipate defense past people quite run sector seeing start war
The defense sector has had quite a run over the past 18 months. As people start to anticipate a war scenario, we're seeing a little froth in these stocks.
coming continue good line numbers straight volatility
We'll continue to see volatility for two reasons. First, there's no straight line of good numbers continuously coming out of the economy.
oil ought positive price several starting
We like the oil stocks. Oil has been in the dumpster for several years. We're starting to see the price hikes. Oil is up over $30 a barrel. This ought to be positive for these companies.
bit bond bonds gotten maybe money nervous price stock yields
We have reallocated out of bonds. We got a little bit nervous back in December. However, now that bond yields have gotten back to where they are and stock price are where they are, I think you're going to take a real look at bonds and maybe take some money off the table.