Alan Kral
Alan Kral
begin earnings focus people
I think what people will begin to focus on is earnings going forward.
acts bring earnings economy extra fed finally growth hurt recently risk situation slow stocks strong
The big risk with the stocks that have done well recently is that the economy is so strong that it can't continue, and when it slows down, that will hurt earnings. Secondly, when the Fed finally acts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, it will be a double-whammy to earnings - and it will be an extra big whammy to those stocks that have been in the situation where they really need strong earnings growth going forward.
built cash earnings hope sky
The earnings stink. Earnings are down 16 percent, multiples are sky high, and the whole world is built on hope and a lot of cash flow.
bounce couple
I think we will bounce after a down couple of days.
along basically bear bounce fed market question saw seen sharp trend yesterday
I think what we saw yesterday (Tuesday) was a bounce in the bear market. It could continue. There's no question there are going to be sharp rallies all the way along in here. But I think the trend has been as long as the Fed has been active, we've basically seen a down market with some rallies in it.
election
Overlying everything, you've got the election and there's a lot of uncertainty.
coming continue good line numbers straight volatility
We'll continue to see volatility for two reasons. First, there's no straight line of good numbers continuously coming out of the economy.
bias looking market money people places reasons
People have been looking for reasons to buy. There's so much money around and that places the bias in the market on the upside.
adding bad bias flowing gets money news underlying until upside
The AT&T thing gets some money flowing around into the mergers-and- acquisitions end of the business, which is adding some froth. The underlying bias is on the upside until bad news comes out, and I don't think the bad news is over.
basis change fed impact order people points quarter respond
I think people are just not going to respond to what the Fed does if it's only 25 basis points (a quarter point). In order to have any kind of impact he has to change people's actions, he has to change what people do.
fed past rally relief weeks
We think the rally in Nasdaq over the past two weeks is really a relief rally. The relief is they don't think the Fed has to go any further.
asia demand domestic drop expect exposure floor lifting near oil pick prices recovery time
We pick those two for their exposure to the domestic market. We think the recovery in Asia is lifting demand and has re-established a floor under oil prices, and we don't expect prices to drop any time in the near term.
oil ought positive price several starting
We like the oil stocks. Oil has been in the dumpster for several years. We're starting to see the price hikes. Oil is up over $30 a barrel. This ought to be positive for these companies.
based consumer economy leg risk
But the real risk that we have to see with the economy is -- does it take another leg down based upon consumer spending?