Andy Xie
Andy Xie
Andy Xieis an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist famous for his contrarian and provocative views. He left Morgan Stanley abruptly in October 2006 when an internal email that he penned was leaked. He derided Singapore as a money laundering centre for Indonesia, and the ASEAN group of nations as a failure...
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The answer, I believe, is that there are too many oil traders engaging in oil price speculation. They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe,
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Either you have a big adjustment like a 20 percent or 30 percent decline, or you have a big recession or you have a slow decline in property prices or several years of no growth.
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In particular, if another Bush government moves on to Iran, then oil prices would go very high and really threaten China's economic development.
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The financial sector may have become dependent on the trading profits from oil. As evidence accumulates over weakening demand and strong supply, I believe oil prices could collapse,
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Korea's consumption growth is currently very much dependent on sentiment and unanticipated wealth gains, leading to concerns about the sustainability of consumption recovery.
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Overseas Chinese control, by my estimate, $2 trillion of liquid assets that can be mobilized instantly to punt on anything from European football games to Shanghai property. This source of money is both the boon and the bane of China's economic development.
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This should not be surprising after the exceptionally strong growth of the past three years, following China's entry into the WTO,
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The opening of Disneyland this year could prolong the boom for another two years.
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I experienced the effect firsthand on my return flight from London to Hong Kong last weekend. There were three passengers in my cabin -- a 10 percent occupancy rate at best. Hong Kong's restaurants are mostly empty. It is difficult to enjoy a meal with masked waiters tiptoeing around in silence. If you want to frighten people in Hong Kong, just sneeze.
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China's investment demand is based on excessive optimism about the future. India depends on capital inflow to fund its consumption-led growth, like a poorer version of the U.S.
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China's education system is a no man's land. Schools have too much autonomy, they receive government funding, but they are not monitored.
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China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market.
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China competitiveness is generating a positive sum game in the region for now.
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Growth rates could decelerate by another 1 percentage point due to further rises in oil prices.