Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital
Barclays Investment Bankis the investment banking division of the British multinational Barclays bank headquartered in London. It provides advisory, financing and risk management services to large companies, institutions and government clients. It is a primary dealer in U.S. Treasury securities and various European Government bonds...
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It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.
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OPEC production is falling in any case thanks to Nigerian losses, and the threat from Niger Delta militants to oil exports has the potential to get even more serious.
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We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.
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Physical buying could help provide some support, but it is still unclear at which price levels they would re-emerge in significant quantities.
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Recent hurricane damage in the U.S. has impacted natural gas more than any other energy market.
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Italy's problems appear so deeply rooted that the next government, whatever its complexion, is unlikely to do little more than make a start at solving them.
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We continue to question how close the situation now is to either complete company withdrawal from the area or a strike by workers due to the obvious lack of security.
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We continue to expect two more rate hikes, but the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that upside risk to this forecast is limited.
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Market conditions will remain nervous and there is a general sense of uncertainty over the next big price move.
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While strikes in Chile rarely tend to last for very long, any disruption to production or shipments will lend support to copper prices given the strong demand environment and lack of spare material.
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U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen further below their five-year average, while U.S. oil demand remains strong. Our estimates of current market balances indicate a significant tightening relative to a year ago.
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U.S. payrolls are much more pivotal today than in prior months. A strong outcome would encourage the market in its increasingly optimistic view of the US economy and hawkish view of the Fed.
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The possibility for a non-benign solution to the dispute leaves open the risk for higher prices in the short term.
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Given the renewed interest in commodities and positive sentiment in gold, price risks for the (platinum group metals) are still very much on the upside, in our view.