Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital
Barclays Investment Bankis the investment banking division of the British multinational Barclays bank headquartered in London. It provides advisory, financing and risk management services to large companies, institutions and government clients. It is a primary dealer in U.S. Treasury securities and various European Government bonds...
absent appetite asia continued credit fund likely loan market stability strength support synthetic
Absent new developments in credit, the continued synthetic demand, the hedge fund bid, strength in the leveraged loan market, stability in U.S. Treasuries, and credit appetite from Asia will likely continue to support the market overall.
correction despite further markets physical prices relatively steady suggest support threat worth
It is worth noting that prices are getting little support from the physical markets despite relatively steady prices of late, which suggest that threat of further correction remains.
apparent further given interest lack overall positive room sentiment short
Given the overall positive sentiment and an apparent lack of interest to short the marker aggressively, we see further room on the upside.
beyond crisis energy hurricane impact katrina major markets produce pushed talk
It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.
above driven mostly move recent
The recent move above $1,000 is mostly driven by speculative buying.
cautionary clear conflict high length major microscope move side
Under the microscope it is clear that an important watershed is approaching. The short-term downtrend is about to come into conflict with the medium-term uptrend. Typically we would side with the longer-term move but the length of the downtrend from the high is a major cautionary note.
chile copper demand disruption environment given lack last lend prices production rarely shipments spare strikes strong support tend
While strikes in Chile rarely tend to last for very long, any disruption to production or shipments will lend support to copper prices given the strong demand environment and lack of spare material.
apparent believe chinese crude demand figures imports october oil period rise signals stronger
We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.
balances below current demand estimates fallen further gasoline indicate market oil relative remains year
U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen further below their five-year average, while U.S. oil demand remains strong. Our estimates of current market balances indicate a significant tightening relative to a year ago.
continue expect forecast minutes rate risk suggest tone upside
We continue to expect two more rate hikes, but the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that upside risk to this forecast is limited.
area close company complete continue due either lack obvious question situation strike workers
We continue to question how close the situation now is to either complete company withdrawal from the area or a strike by workers due to the obvious lack of security.
aggressive conflict discourage eventual help resolution selling
Uncertainty over the eventual resolution of this conflict would help discourage aggressive selling interest.
dispute higher leaves open prices risk short solution
The possibility for a non-benign solution to the dispute leaves open the risk for higher prices in the short term.
economy encourage market optimistic outcome pivotal prior strong today view
U.S. payrolls are much more pivotal today than in prior months. A strong outcome would encourage the market in its increasingly optimistic view of the US economy and hawkish view of the Fed.