Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital
Barclays Investment Bankis the investment banking division of the British multinational Barclays bank headquartered in London. It provides advisory, financing and risk management services to large companies, institutions and government clients. It is a primary dealer in U.S. Treasury securities and various European Government bonds...
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We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.
capacity crude lacks oil refine short spare
Crude oil was the one thing not in short supply. What the U.S. lacks is oil products, especially gasoline, and it lacks the spare capacity to refine more crude.
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The release of strategic reserves contains a very large component of unneeded crude oil and does little to directly impact on the actual supply gap of U.S. oil products.
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The dichotomy in the US market between tight products and flush crude has become more pronounced.
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The current high levels of U.S. inventory is of little comfort given that it is the product of an unusually high level of seasonal maintenance. Although crude stocks are rising, product stocks are falling and U.S. oil demand is growing strongly.
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It is now appropriate to talk of a major energy crisis after Hurricane Katrina pushed U.S. energy markets beyond the edge. The impact of Katrina has been to produce a significant discontinuity.
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OPEC production is falling in any case thanks to Nigerian losses, and the threat from Niger Delta militants to oil exports has the potential to get even more serious.
buying help levels physical price provide unclear
Physical buying could help provide some support, but it is still unclear at which price levels they would re-emerge in significant quantities.
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Recent hurricane damage in the U.S. has impacted natural gas more than any other energy market.
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Italy's problems appear so deeply rooted that the next government, whatever its complexion, is unlikely to do little more than make a start at solving them.
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We continue to question how close the situation now is to either complete company withdrawal from the area or a strike by workers due to the obvious lack of security.
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We continue to expect two more rate hikes, but the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that upside risk to this forecast is limited.
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Market conditions will remain nervous and there is a general sense of uncertainty over the next big price move.
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While strikes in Chile rarely tend to last for very long, any disruption to production or shipments will lend support to copper prices given the strong demand environment and lack of spare material.