Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
anticipate believe cuts group investors likely looking market rate recovery start stock
There is a substantial group of investors who believe the stock market will start to anticipate an (economic) recovery. The more rate cuts we get, the more likely the recovery is -- I'm looking at this as a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
accepted behind best clean companies earnings fact forecasts gotten growth half handful name percent quarter scenes season second stocks surface totally year
We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
bad broader certainly changed effect negatives news psychology
There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
affected companies dramatic energy rise seeing starting stocks tech
We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.
absolute beyond economy-and-economics forward giving half reflection says second suspicion
The reflection of what Cisco says is an absolute reflection of the economy. If Cisco is giving this forward look beyond the first quarter, then the suspicion of a possibility for a second half upturn may not be as evident.
buck cycle judging late market next rallying september small
I don't think we're going to buck the September trend, and I don't think we'll see a big sell-off. I think we'll see some rallying through the next week, and then a small pullback after that in late September, judging by the cycle the market has been going in.
concerned direct economy effect either expect hikes interest line looking market number rate remain tame
I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.
bit summer
We may need a little bit more of a washout here to get that summer rally,
boost cut pcs strong
HP was surprisingly strong and that should boost the PCs tomorrow, but AMAT may cut into the semis,
dressing gets last next quarter today window
Today is the next to last day of the quarter and window dressing gets more aggressive.
drive fear fears great impetus keeping negative people surprise
There is a fear that we'll have a negative surprise and inflationary fears are keeping people on the sidelines, ... There's no real great impetus out there to drive the market.
broad confidence consumer main number optimism shows start strength today
What I like about today is that all of the main S&P sectors are higher, which shows broad strength for the market. And the consumer confidence number suggests optimism about the start of 2005.
based christmas continued low number puts retail seen spending stocks
Based upon how we've seen retail stocks perform, any continued low (consumer confidence) number puts a crimp in the Christmas spending story.
coming correction higher highs interest near oil plus prices profit prospect rates seeing tremendous
I would characterize this as a correction long in coming. We're coming off of this tremendous run, plus you've got oil prices near all-time highs and the prospect of higher interest rates through the end of the year, and so you're seeing some profit taking.