Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
belief cyclical gotten people technology
People have gotten into the belief that much of technology is cyclical now.
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I think the week was excellent. The Fed, even though the reaction was delayed, reinvigorated the psychology of the market. It's reinforcing the belief that these interest rate cuts will be the medicine for the economy.
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I don't think there's anything that will deter the Fed from lowering interest rates in August. I think the story is going to be the continuing belief that there is a mixed story on Wall Street that has been brought out, in terms of technology. The visibility story is changing somewhat to the 'we see the bottom in sight' scenario.
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The market has some power today. Continued lower energy prices and the belief that the economy is rebounding off a poor fourth quarter are assumed to be behind the move today.
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There's a lot of pre-Fed buying, ... There's this insane belief that the Fed's going to move more than a half-point and that's what's powering the Dow, because you have a lot of cyclicality in that index and they are certainly beneficiaries of any severe interest rate cut.
belief certainly insane interest move rate severe
There's a lot of pre-Fed buying. There's this insane belief that the Fed's going to move more than a half-point and that's what's powering the Dow, because you have a lot of cyclicality in that index and they are certainly beneficiaries of any severe interest rate cut.
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I think we're going to go down to the wire whether or not it's a half-percentage point (increase). If you want to maintain market stability, a quarter percentage point could keep the market at bay.
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A worse-than-expected number tomorrow will discount what happened this week. If we get an inflationary number, the market will go down, but I think it all clears up by mid-June.
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I think it's just more of the same. The Nasdaq is quickly approaching 5,000 and it's hard to divert money back to traditional stocks when the opportunities are so phenomenal in the new world economy.
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I think it's too late to be worried about where your tech stock is going to go from here. There are some opportunities out there and we are aware of the short-term problems in the marketplace with the Fed being aggressive. So, we're not looking for a very vigorous rally over the next one to three months. There will be trading rallies. But the investor, the small investor, the intermediate-to-long-term investor should use the summer time, which is seasonally weak for technology stocks, to start to accumulate an easier way into some of these great companies,
generally intel run seeing stock
Intel was generally positive, but I think the stock had run up into the meeting, so that's why you're not seeing much reaction.
increased market volatility
At the same time, there is this increased market volatility that exaggerates these swings.
accounting worries
There's still some overhang from the accounting worries out there.
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There really isn't any dramatic news to come out post-Fed ? we're going to get into that earnings void, the next meeting for the Fed isn't until late June, so I think the story is how well the pullback in this market will be contained.