Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I think, ... that Pfizer is going to benefit from their merger with Warner-Lambert. I think that makes a very good deal. But most pharmaceutical companies do eventually strike deals with biotech companies in terms of marketing their product. And the genomic companies don't have a lot of cash. They have a lot of high valuations, but they don't have a lot of dollars to spend. So, they usually look toward the pharmaceutical sector to help them out, which usually helps both sectors.
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In technology, IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is more of a technical analysis play. The stock has broken out, or getting very close to breaking out, of a trading range. And I think the market's still going to give a premium to quality companies in technology. IBM being listed doesn't get that Nasdaq appeal, however. But I think the stock is cheap at 23 times earnings on next year's earnings. And their big server market and the other types of technology they have are doing very well in the service sector.
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I think it's the pattern from pre-announcements to earnings ? these are two companies (Motorola, Yahoo!) that have beaten lowered expectations, beating pre-announcements. When you expand that to the Microsoft story, it makes it even more powerful today.
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This is a market that is assuming everything is going to get better. There's been too much commentary by the chairmen of these companies that these problems are inventory but everything is based on a turn of the economy ? that's what the Fed is there for.
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Higher interest rates are an impediment to companies where cost is important and that's Old Economy stocks, ... What we are seeing is a defensive move into technology stocks.
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I think we're looking at nothing but good news on the earnings front. It will be more critical to see what guidance these companies give us toward the next six months to one year. Today's action is a little too premature to say how the markets will react to earnings.
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The idea is that interest rates will affect the old-economy companies more, because they are more interest rate sensitive. You will probably have less of an effect on technology stocks, and there is a lot of bargain-hunting going on. I think investors are a little more comfortable coming into these blue chips down 30 percent.
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For some reason, today we're painting the whole picture with a broad brush and a few profit warnings are really damaging that landscape for the companies that are good (performers).
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The situation is very tenuous on the equipment side and any slowdown in demand in the equipment side of the equation, when you are priced to perfection, means these companies are still very expensive,
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It's the companies that came through the quarter without any problems that are the ones reacting well and they're not as cyclical as some of the others.
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Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
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It is quite astounding. One week revenue-based companies are forbidden (psychologically) from investors' minds and one week later, as interest rate (fears) return, technology (stock) is the place to be because they are less affected.
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I think next week it will be important to see two things: solid numbers out of growth companies and seeing still a steady stream of economic numbers showing the required slowing of the economy with no inflation.
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The market is going to remain on the defensive and start to look at this developing technology story. To technology, that story is very important. It filters throughout the whole chain of PC sales to companies that produce chips.