Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
absolute beyond economy-and-economics forward giving half reflection says second suspicion
The reflection of what Cisco says is an absolute reflection of the economy. If Cisco is giving this forward look beyond the first quarter, then the suspicion of a possibility for a second half upturn may not be as evident.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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There are certainly negatives out there, ... But the psychology has changed and the bad news isn't having as big an effect on the broader market.
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The CPI will still have an influence on the Fed meeting. You are in a bear market in technology stocks and you'll have to accept that. You're not going to get anything significant until the second half of the year.
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There is a little bit of profit-taking and a little bit of nervousness as we go into Thursday's GDP number, ... The durable goods number was a little stronger than expected. That shows continued strength in the economy. That is not what you want to see right now.
relationship
The P&G story is a lot more significant than just its relationship to P&G.
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The productivity numbers today (Thursday) and tomorrow's (Friday's) report do nothing to support a bullish market. I would be concerned if we saw the unemployment drop below 4 percent because that would show the economy is not slowing down.
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The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
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The only way I can see why the market is not reacting to several negatives out there is the anticipation of one more (rate) hike and we're done.
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The psychology is just not there for the economy to make any substantial move until we get through the Fed meeting. There's really no selling pressure, it's just tremendous volatility.
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The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact. This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
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The price of oil and the weaker euro is absolutely having an impact, ... This is a market searching for a reason to go higher but this is a core root economic problem that could exist and the market is quickly coming to the belief that there is no overnight fix.
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The price of energy should spook investors. So far, the market is foolishly accepting of the price of oil without a negative reaction as long as it doesn't break out to a new high.
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We're seeing pre-releases starting in 'old economy' stocks - companies that are not leading-edge tech companies but are more affected by this dramatic rise in energy prices.