Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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There really isn't any dramatic news to come out post-Fed ? we're going to get into that earnings void, the next meeting for the Fed isn't until late June, so I think the story is how well the pullback in this market will be contained.
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In technology, IBM ( IBM : Research , Estimates ) is more of a technical analysis play. The stock has broken out, or getting very close to breaking out, of a trading range. And I think the market's still going to give a premium to quality companies in technology. IBM being listed doesn't get that Nasdaq appeal, however. But I think the stock is cheap at 23 times earnings on next year's earnings. And their big server market and the other types of technology they have are doing very well in the service sector.
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I think the picture is optimistic and earnings in general have been better than expected.
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I think it's the pattern from pre-announcements to earnings ? these are two companies (Motorola, Yahoo!) that have beaten lowered expectations, beating pre-announcements. When you expand that to the Microsoft story, it makes it even more powerful today.
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Earnings are coming in better than expected, and they're helping the market preserve the rally, but the overriding concern to me is high energy prices and what the Fed is doing.
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Overall the earnings seem to be coming in a little better than expected, but the news has been the lackluster going-forward look in high-profile names in tech and finance.
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Technology has done well, not necessarily because of the crash, but because it has moved up the alert that the market's concentrating on a 2002 recovery. Rather than focusing on the earnings that are going to come out in the fourth quarter, people are looking forward rather than near-term.
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As we get through the earnings in the next few weeks, we'll see some positive surprises, which should help stabilize the market. And then, once we get past the election, I think we're going to see a pickup.
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You continue to have investors weighing strong earnings -- in this case Yahoo! and Intel -- versus the fear of inflation again.
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There's going to be this flip-flop next week and continually until we get through earnings season, going from earnings to worrying about the economic slowdown and what inflation brings so I think next week is going to be marked by that. We're getting to the point where the market needs good earnings. It needs to have a catalyst to get the growth sector moving again.
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The market is waiting to see the earnings because that is your first catalyst in the market that can possibly dispel the slower-than-expected growth that the market is anticipating. The market is very split today. People are just looking for reasons to own some things and reasons to sell others.
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I think we're looking at nothing but good news on the earnings front. It will be more critical to see what guidance these companies give us toward the next six months to one year. Today's action is a little too premature to say how the markets will react to earnings.
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Growth stocks on the large cap front with perceived consistent earnings can be looked at as better values.
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I like Wells Fargo. Super regional bank, great earnings growth, around 13-14 percent year over year. They just got past their 1 millionth on-line investor, and I want to have a super regional bank or a large bank that has an online presence.