Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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Earnings are coming in better than expected, and they're helping the market preserve the rally, but the overriding concern to me is high energy prices and what the Fed is doing.
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The fourth quarter is going to be volatile and trying. I don't think the market has fully discounted all the negatives in front of it, including the hurricanes' impact on the economy, higher energy prices on corporate profits, and higher inflation.
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Energy up on a day-to-day basis is a factor. Crude is approaching $70 a barrel and natural gas is up too.
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way, ... The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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I still don't think we have the Fed out of the way. The Fed seemed to worry more on inflationary than longer-term risks to the economy, which was reacted to very quickly in the market yesterday. That story still lingers today, as well as another major hurricane that's ramping up energy costs.
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A rebound in energy (prices) could be one of the excuses for a mid-December trading peak (in stocks).
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The market has some power today. Continued lower energy prices and the belief that the economy is rebounding off a poor fourth quarter are assumed to be behind the move today.
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The fourth quarter is going to be volatile and trying, ... I don't think the market has fully discounted all the negatives in front of it, including the hurricanes' impact on the economy, higher energy prices on corporate profits, and higher inflation.
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The election is really undecided, and I think that keeps the market locked in a range right now. Day to day this week, I think people need to watch the price of energy and see how Wall Street is looking to position itself for after the election.
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Energy prices, which were lower, have turned up. I think we quickly came to the reality that a less-than-expected outcome from Hurricane Rita doesn't take away from the worse-than-expected outcome from Katrina.
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I think we're going to go down to the wire whether or not it's a half-percentage point (increase). If you want to maintain market stability, a quarter percentage point could keep the market at bay.
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A worse-than-expected number tomorrow will discount what happened this week. If we get an inflationary number, the market will go down, but I think it all clears up by mid-June.
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I think it's just more of the same. The Nasdaq is quickly approaching 5,000 and it's hard to divert money back to traditional stocks when the opportunities are so phenomenal in the new world economy.
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I think it's too late to be worried about where your tech stock is going to go from here. There are some opportunities out there and we are aware of the short-term problems in the marketplace with the Fed being aggressive. So, we're not looking for a very vigorous rally over the next one to three months. There will be trading rallies. But the investor, the small investor, the intermediate-to-long-term investor should use the summer time, which is seasonally weak for technology stocks, to start to accumulate an easier way into some of these great companies,