Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
growth investment last money represents sector work
It is just an affirmation that the Nasdaq represents the growth sector of the investment universe. That is where much money is being put to work the last month.
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There's going to be this flip-flop next week and continually until we get through earnings season, going from earnings to worrying about the economic slowdown and what inflation brings so I think next week is going to be marked by that. We're getting to the point where the market needs good earnings. It needs to have a catalyst to get the growth sector moving again.
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The market is waiting to see the earnings because that is your first catalyst in the market that can possibly dispel the slower-than-expected growth that the market is anticipating. The market is very split today. People are just looking for reasons to own some things and reasons to sell others.
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Growth stocks on the large cap front with perceived consistent earnings can be looked at as better values.
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I like Wells Fargo. Super regional bank, great earnings growth, around 13-14 percent year over year. They just got past their 1 millionth on-line investor, and I want to have a super regional bank or a large bank that has an online presence.
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Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
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I think next week it will be important to see two things: solid numbers out of growth companies and seeing still a steady stream of economic numbers showing the required slowing of the economy with no inflation.
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Most of the growth stories are not performing today and that is how we'll go into the Fed meeting. There's still very little conviction in the market.
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It doesn't really determine that this year is going to be a down year. What it really indicates is the confusion over whether we're in a growth economy or not.
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I think the year starts out very similar to how it's ending. Just because a stock is cheap doesn't mean it should be bought ? you have to look at the growth rate and I think the Fed lowering interest rates is going to be very important.
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The economy is already slowing down without the impact of that 50 basis point hike last month, and I think what you have to look at here is the ending of the interest rate cycle. The growth stocks are technology stocks. And at this time it's a very seasonal thing as well. We are coming to the end of the quarter, so you are going to just get the great stock into the portfolios and sell the weak ones.
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I think we're going to go down to the wire whether or not it's a half-percentage point (increase). If you want to maintain market stability, a quarter percentage point could keep the market at bay.
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A worse-than-expected number tomorrow will discount what happened this week. If we get an inflationary number, the market will go down, but I think it all clears up by mid-June.
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I think it's just more of the same. The Nasdaq is quickly approaching 5,000 and it's hard to divert money back to traditional stocks when the opportunities are so phenomenal in the new world economy.