Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
emphasis fed key meeting next rate seeing slowing succession
I think we really have to get to the next Fed meeting before anything significant happens. We have to see the emphasis on a slowing economy, and that's key to seeing that there won't be an open-ended succession of rate hikes.
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I think to an extent we've taken for granted the last few Fed meetings, and next week's meeting takes on more significance, ... A quarter-point hike is pretty much expected, but I think the relative bumpiness of the recent economic news could mean the Fed will indicate that rates may not rise as aggressively last year as people had been thinking.
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I think the week was excellent. The Fed, even though the reaction was delayed, reinvigorated the psychology of the market. It's reinforcing the belief that these interest rate cuts will be the medicine for the economy.
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I think there are going to be opportunities to buy the weakness because I think the pre-release season will dominate again ? I don't think there's going to be a significant drop, though. There are a lot of people who buy the concept that 250 basis points (in interest rate cuts) with more coming is going to help.
bond feeling fine headed heading interest key looks market rates starting street struggling technical wall
The 10-year bond looks like it's headed higher, so I think the feeling is starting to pervade Wall Street that economy's fine and interest rates are heading higher. But the market has (also) been choppy and struggling with some key technical levels.
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I think people are looking forward to the end of rate hikes and if there's no dramatic change in the wording of the statement tomorrow, that could hurt the market.
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There is a substantial group of investors who believe the stock market will start to anticipate an (economic) recovery. The more rate cuts we get, the more likely the recovery is -- I'm looking at this as a 'buy the dip' opportunity.
concerned direct economy effect either expect hikes interest line looking market number rate remain tame
I expect (ECI) to be very tame and show now inflation. It's the GDP I'm concerned about. If either one doesn't come in line (with expectations), the market will remain under pressure, ... I'm looking at the GDP number because that's going to give us a direct causal effect to how well the interest rate hikes have slowed the economy down.
coming correction higher highs interest near oil plus prices profit prospect rates seeing tremendous
I would characterize this as a correction long in coming. We're coming off of this tremendous run, plus you've got oil prices near all-time highs and the prospect of higher interest rates through the end of the year, and so you're seeing some profit taking.
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We think 3.5 percent is a good point for the Fed to take a break to measure the economy and the impact of its rate hikes. If the economy does appear to be picking up, they could start raising again.
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What you are seeing is the likelihood that interest rates will not go higher next week, making it easier to give these big cap growth stocks high valuations.
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There is also a little bit of nervousness ahead of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to be strong. It just focuses investors on the higher interest rates that are still in the offing.
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There's no (economic) stabilization yet, but it now brings the possibility of continued aggressive Fed moves. We're four cuts deep into an interest rate cycle and we're going to get a fifth. That's going to help the economy down the road -- it's not a question of 'Will it?' but it's a question of when.
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Profit taking will be key words today (Thursday) and over the next couple of weeks. The Fed's rate cut yesterday bodes well for the longer term but near term it is an excuse to take profits. Cisco's story is another excuse to take profits in technology.