Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I think to an extent we've taken for granted the last few Fed meetings, and next week's meeting takes on more significance, ... A quarter-point hike is pretty much expected, but I think the relative bumpiness of the recent economic news could mean the Fed will indicate that rates may not rise as aggressively last year as people had been thinking.
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The traditional year-end rally didn't happen this year and the 'January Effect' doesn't look like it's going to occur. This is just a wait-and-see market right now that will continue to be driven by important catalysts, whether geopolitical or earnings-based.
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I like Wells Fargo. Super regional bank, great earnings growth, around 13-14 percent year over year. They just got past their 1 millionth on-line investor, and I want to have a super regional bank or a large bank that has an online presence.
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Our look for the rest of the year is we're going to rally and worry. We're going to rally and worry some more. And we're going to rally again. I think the concern or the 'worry period' that we're now entering is this cyclical issue again, after this run up in the semiconductors sector and the third-quarter prerelease season, which we're quickly coming to. And I think that's going to give the opportunity for the next run up in the marketplace, which should come somewhere over the next few weeks into the election. The good news, as you pointed out, is that the Fed's done,
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I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,
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Don't expect 86 percent this year on the tech stocks, ... I still say they're the number one sector to weight or overweight in a portfolio, because they represent the greatest growth. Your companies at 8-to-10 percent are languishing. Companies with earnings, who cares. It's a 100 times earnings. It's 30 percent growth that matters in this market.
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It doesn't really determine that this year is going to be a down year. What it really indicates is the confusion over whether we're in a growth economy or not.
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I think the year starts out very similar to how it's ending. Just because a stock is cheap doesn't mean it should be bought ? you have to look at the growth rate and I think the Fed lowering interest rates is going to be very important.
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I think we're going to go down to the wire whether or not it's a half-percentage point (increase). If you want to maintain market stability, a quarter percentage point could keep the market at bay.
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A worse-than-expected number tomorrow will discount what happened this week. If we get an inflationary number, the market will go down, but I think it all clears up by mid-June.
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I think it's just more of the same. The Nasdaq is quickly approaching 5,000 and it's hard to divert money back to traditional stocks when the opportunities are so phenomenal in the new world economy.
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I think it's too late to be worried about where your tech stock is going to go from here. There are some opportunities out there and we are aware of the short-term problems in the marketplace with the Fed being aggressive. So, we're not looking for a very vigorous rally over the next one to three months. There will be trading rallies. But the investor, the small investor, the intermediate-to-long-term investor should use the summer time, which is seasonally weak for technology stocks, to start to accumulate an easier way into some of these great companies,
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Intel was generally positive, but I think the stock had run up into the meeting, so that's why you're not seeing much reaction.
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At the same time, there is this increased market volatility that exaggerates these swings.