Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
crops damage department estimates eventual farms force katrina lessons loses production revised risk state
The risk to crops and farms won't be as significant if it loses force, ... When you look at the lessons from Katrina, the eventual damage to agriculture was less than feared. The department of agriculture actually revised up its estimates of production in the state after Katrina passed.
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Demand is strong enough for companies to raise prices. This will keep the Fed's bias toward higher rates intact through the second quarter of 2006.
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Demand for capital goods in overseas markets is expected to remain firm in the months ahead as cyclical recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum.
continues growth second sector solid stage
The manufacturing sector continues to steam-roll ahead. The stage is set for solid growth in the second quarter.
behaving core energy feed generally inflation lengthy modest persistent pressure price prices producer quite
Core producer price inflation generally has been behaving quite well. We think there's going to be some modest upward pressure as energy prices feed through the system, but it's not going to be a persistent or lengthy problem.
ahead continue second spending
Consumption spending will continue to plod ahead in the second quarter.
basically hike rate
They're basically signaling, 'Expect one more rate hike here' and that's what we are basically expecting.
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Business investment is going to be one of the principal drivers of growth in 2006. The consumer will still be there ... (but) certainly won't be as ebullient as the last four years.
activity boost expected housing january provide temporary warm weather
The warm weather in January will provide a temporary upward boost to housing construction, but activity is expected to taper off in February.
combined confidence consumer employment further gains levels overall quarter setting solid stage
Further gains in employment combined with better levels for consumer confidence overall are setting the stage for very solid consumption gains in the first quarter of 2006.
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Maybe we should all be praying for a warm winter because that might ease the pain.
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The major markets overseas - Europe, Japan and Asia - have fairly solid underlying momentum. Japan is certainly improving and Europe is more like the Queen Elizabeth slowly turning around.
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Gains in employment and the stock market continue to support confidence. Household income is expected to grow at rates that will sustain growth in consumer spending.
continue expected housing january mortgage pop purchase sales suggesting track
Mortgage purchase applications continue to track downwards, suggesting that most of the expected pop in housing sales in January was weather-related.