Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
definitely flag generally goes percent red yellow
Generally speaking, when it is over 75 percent of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95 percent of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.
accelerate early expansion expected fed inflation projected quarter third
With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.
activity gains job normal overall solid start terms
We'll have very solid overall job gains that will punctuate the start of more normal activity in terms of employment,
looks road tells terms
What this tells us in terms of the fundamentals is the road looks fine.
cooling federal gradual housing market news welcome
The gradual cooling off of the housing market will be welcome news at the Federal Reserve.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.
business continued corporate generally good help leads profits rebound saw signal
We saw a big rebound in corporate profits and that's a good signal for continued business investment. That generally leads to hiring, which will help keep consumption going.
farmers fish gets lost price producers production profits recover seafood shrimp
The only consolation to farmers is that the price of seafood will go up further. So when production gets back on track, fish and shrimp producers can use the profits to recover their lost costs.
bonds demand funds insurance pension reports solid underlying
There are reports of solid underlying demand for 30-year bonds from pension funds and insurance companies.
continued core drop energy federal inflation level months next painful pressure price record relief reserve several spells top vigilant welcome
While the record drop in the top level index spells welcome relief from the painful post-hurricane energy price spikes in September, continued pressure on the core index over the next several months will keep the Federal Reserve vigilant on the inflation watch.
continues demand domestic energy external situation sources supply terms
There is an imbalance in terms of the demand and supply of energy which continues to be satisfied, or is increasingly satisfied, by external sources of energy products. Now we have a situation that has been every more complicated because of a domestic supply shock.
baton commercial ease expect housing leadership momentum overall pattern public remains starts taking
The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.
aircraft drop expected impact month noise orders outlook strictly
The expected drop in aircraft orders is strictly month-to- month noise and does not have any impact on the outlook for growth.