Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
ahead capital cyclical demand europe expected firm gaining goods japan markets months overseas remain
Demand for capital goods in overseas markets is expected to remain firm in the months ahead as cyclical recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum.
aware budget check deficit doctor gaining interest lose rates slow sudden tells until
The budget deficit is like gaining weight. You are not really aware of it until at some point, all of a sudden you can't do what you want to do because you are heavier. Interest rates go up and slow things down. Then you go to your check up and the doctor tells you you got to lose 25 pounds.
additional attractive clearly economic growth side terms
In terms of economic growth, the fundamentals are clearly on the side of the U.S.. We don't think there's going to be a lot of additional momentum, but even if (the dollar) treads water, it's still going to be an attractive investment.
definitely flag generally goes percent red yellow
Generally speaking, when it is over 75 percent of GDP, then the yellow flag goes out. I would say 95 percent of GDP and over is definitely a red flag.
cut flow housing increasing meet people prices respond retirement save stock
If housing and stock prices go down, people will respond by increasing the flow of savings. If they have to save more to meet retirement objectives, then they'll have to cut down on consumption.
borrowing demand driven early expectation higher housing interest line towards translate ultimately
This is in line with our expectation that demand for new housing would 'cool off' towards the end of 2005 and in early 2006 as higher short-term interest rates, driven by the Fed, would ultimately translate into higher long-term borrowing rates.
impressive industries kicked quarter second services
Services industries kicked off the second quarter with very impressive momentum.
coming existing following northeast peaked sales september
Existing sales peaked nationally back in September and have been coming down. The Northeast is following that pattern.
basically hike rate
They're basically signaling, 'Expect one more rate hike here' and that's what we are basically expecting.
activity boost expected housing january provide temporary warm weather
The warm weather in January will provide a temporary upward boost to housing construction, but activity is expected to taper off in February.
asia certainly elizabeth europe fairly improving japan major markets overseas queen slowly solid turning underlying
The major markets overseas - Europe, Japan and Asia - have fairly solid underlying momentum. Japan is certainly improving and Europe is more like the Queen Elizabeth slowly turning around.
continues growth second sector solid stage
The manufacturing sector continues to steam-roll ahead. The stage is set for solid growth in the second quarter.
economy economy-and-economics terms
The economy is doing pretty well now in terms of momentum.
baton commercial ease expect housing leadership momentum overall pattern public remains starts taking
The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.