Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
baton commercial ease expect housing leadership momentum overall pattern public remains starts taking
The overall momentum in construction remains solid. We expect this pattern to continue, with public and commercial construction taking the leadership baton in 2006 as housing starts ease back moderately.
consumers definitely excuse looked needed provided spending strong weather
We're definitely going to see a very strong first quarter. It looked like consumers were hibernating in December, and all they needed was an excuse to go on a spending spree. The weather provided that.
europe gaining growth japan provide
Recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum. This should provide the underpinnings for respectable growth in exports.
business capacity gaining heading justifies level second strength
Manufacturing is gaining strength heading into the second quarter. We have a level of capacity use that justifies more business investment.
gust wind
That was a gust of wind in the spinnaker.
business continued corporate generally good help leads profits rebound saw signal
We saw a big rebound in corporate profits and that's a good signal for continued business investment. That generally leads to hiring, which will help keep consumption going.
aircraft drop expected impact month noise orders outlook strictly
The expected drop in aircraft orders is strictly month-to- month noise and does not have any impact on the outlook for growth.
bonds demand funds insurance pension reports solid underlying
There are reports of solid underlying demand for 30-year bonds from pension funds and insurance companies.
farmers fish gets lost price producers production profits recover seafood shrimp
The only consolation to farmers is that the price of seafood will go up further. So when production gets back on track, fish and shrimp producers can use the profits to recover their lost costs.
accelerate early expansion expected fed inflation projected quarter third
With the expansion projected to accelerate in the third quarter and inflation projected to be contained, the Fed is expected to 'play the same tune' and 'dance the same step' into early 2006.
confidence consumer continue employment expected gains grow growth household income market rates stock support sustain
Gains in employment and the stock market continue to support confidence. Household income is expected to grow at rates that will sustain growth in consumer spending.
combined confidence consumer employment further gains levels overall quarter setting solid stage
Further gains in employment combined with better levels for consumer confidence overall are setting the stage for very solid consumption gains in the first quarter of 2006.
continues demand domestic energy external situation sources supply terms
There is an imbalance in terms of the demand and supply of energy which continues to be satisfied, or is increasingly satisfied, by external sources of energy products. Now we have a situation that has been every more complicated because of a domestic supply shock.
business certainly consumer drivers four growth investment last principal
Business investment is going to be one of the principal drivers of growth in 2006. The consumer will still be there ... (but) certainly won't be as ebullient as the last four years.