Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
although bond consensus fearing followed market news pieces rally release relief report stronger
Actually there are two pieces of news. One is that although the market consensus was only 250,000, the bond market was fearing a much, much stronger report --hence the relief rally that followed the release of the numbers.
bottom continue convincing economic economy economy-and-economics fourth mean monetary policy rebound signs strong
The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
case demand economy economy-and-economics faster inventory moving percent primarily rocket rose strong though
The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building.
almost amount boost capital certainly consumer economy economy-and-economics growth half hopefully huge next policy rebound recovery second spending spring stimulus strongly
The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.
barely core economy-and-economics great inflation literally measured past prices wholesale year
This is a great PPI number. We have literally no wholesale inflation in the U.S. economy. The PPI went down, the core PPI was unchanged, and over the past year wholesale prices measured by the core PPI are barely up at all.
core fall inflation percent year
In the first year of every recovery, inflation has fallen; and we think the core CPI will fall to 2 percent by year-end.
acquainted continuity good
They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss.
easily gains gradually job market percent support
As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
earlier pace sector shrinking slower
The manufacturing sector is still shrinking but at a much slower pace than earlier in the year.
entirely initial rate rises
If the unemployment rate rises through July, as is entirely possible, the initial tightening will take place during the fall.
economy economy-and-economics hints remains
The economy remains weak, but hints of stabilization are emerging.
begun far federal problems reserve resolved terms
These problems have begun to improve, but they're far from resolved in terms of problems. So the Federal Reserve has got to keep moving.
economic fed likelihood market remove report rule stay
The market has just dodged a bullet. What this report does is remove the likelihood of a Fed tightening on Oct. 5, but we really can't rule out a tightening in November. We have to stay tuned for more economic data.