Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
believe declining economy economy-and-economics good happening hard performing rising sign strong time
The U.S. economy is performing so admirably right now, it is hard to believe how good it is. We have strong growth, declining inflation, strong profits, rising real wages. All of these things are happening at the same time and there is no sign that any of this is about to end.
almost amount boost capital certainly consumer economy economy-and-economics growth half hopefully huge next policy rebound recovery second spending spring stimulus strongly
The U.S. economy is now almost certainly in recession, but a huge amount of policy stimulus should strongly boost growth by next spring or summer. A consumer rebound in the spring and a capital spending recovery by the second half of 2002 will hopefully follow.
bottom continue convincing economic economy economy-and-economics fourth mean monetary policy rebound signs strong
The U.S. economy has yet to show convincing signs of a bottom but that doesn't mean monetary policy isn't working. We continue to look for a strong economic rebound by the fourth quarter.
acquainted continuity good
They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss.
earlier pace sector shrinking slower
The manufacturing sector is still shrinking but at a much slower pace than earlier in the year.
complete fed inflation lack officials puts recent remarks seem
The complete lack of inflation puts the Fed in a bind. Recent remarks by Fed officials make it seem that they are hell-bent on tightening. But there is not much of a rationale that comes out of recent data.
begun far federal problems reserve resolved terms
These problems have begun to improve, but they're far from resolved in terms of problems. So the Federal Reserve has got to keep moving.
barely core economy-and-economics great inflation literally measured past prices wholesale year
This is a great PPI number. We have literally no wholesale inflation in the U.S. economy. The PPI went down, the core PPI was unchanged, and over the past year wholesale prices measured by the core PPI are barely up at all.
believe brings four increase rate stable
The increase in the unemployment rate, while very large, is really a catch-up, as the rate had been stable for four months. This brings the unemployment rate to where we believe it should be at this point.
anyone economy economy-and-economics four growth mean months percent recession three
The economy is doing better than anyone three or four months ago thought it could do. While 1.4 percent growth is pretty feeble, it does mean the recession was, from a GDP perspective, the mildest one we ever had.
definitely economy economy-and-economics growth landing nearly percent prior rate soft viewed year
The economy is definitely making a transition. I think 1998 will be viewed as the year of soft landing when the economy went from a nearly 4 percent growth rate in the prior year, to just over 2 percent this year.
case demand economy economy-and-economics faster inventory moving percent primarily rocket rose strong though
The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building.
economy economy-and-economics hints remains
The economy remains weak, but hints of stabilization are emerging.
economy economy-and-economics fed october remains
The economy is still going very, very strong. I think in October the Fed will take a pass, what they do after that remains to be seen.