Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
complete fed inflation lack officials puts recent remarks seem
The complete lack of inflation puts the Fed in a bind. Recent remarks by Fed officials make it seem that they are hell-bent on tightening. But there is not much of a rationale that comes out of recent data.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
although basically declines despite economic economy economy-and-economics leading telling
The Leading Economic Index is basically telling us what we already know. Despite the declines in the index, the economy is growing, although very slowly.
biggest billion increase oil otherwise prices rising risk robust shaping sustained
Rising oil prices are the biggest risk to what is otherwise shaping up as a robust recovery. Every $1 increase in the price of oil drains about $5 billion from the U.S. economy, if sustained for a year.
case demand economy economy-and-economics faster inventory moving percent primarily rocket rose strong though
The economy was moving like a rocket in the first quarter. GDP probably rose at a 4.5 percent rate. It's a little faster than I thought earlier, primarily because even though demand was enormously strong in the first quarter, there was actually a pretty considerable case of inventory building.
capital data indication provides quite report second spending state
This report provides the first indication of the state of capital spending in the second quarter, and the data were quite strong.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
economic stay
We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
basis believe climax continue cut fed market past risk selling
We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.
assume begin half happen next
We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year.
inflation
We don't have any inflation problem. The CPI was a one-time aberration.
ahead believe job loss mainly major order persist profit recession restore
We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.
august fed initial key path rate timing until
The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.