Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
economy economy-and-economics grip quite recession recovery verge
The economy is on the verge of recovery but the recession has not quite loosened its grip yet.
economic fed likelihood market remove report rule stay
The market has just dodged a bullet. What this report does is remove the likelihood of a Fed tightening on Oct. 5, but we really can't rule out a tightening in November. We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
although basically declines despite economic economy economy-and-economics leading telling
The Leading Economic Index is basically telling us what we already know. Despite the declines in the index, the economy is growing, although very slowly.
ease late soon
I think they may ease as soon as late January.
august fed initial key path rate timing until
The path of the unemployment rate is the key to the timing of the Fed's initial tightening move. In our view, the Fed won't tighten until August at the soonest.
further labor market
A further deterioration in the labor market is inevitable.
behind data showing worst
Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us.
believe raise rates twice
I believe they are going to raise rates at least twice more after today.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.