Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
capable deputy five grooming larry last summers treasury
Larry Summers is a very capable guy. He's been Rubin's deputy for the last five years or so, and Rubin has been grooming him to take on the responsibilities of being the Treasury secretary.
biggest billion increase oil otherwise prices rising risk robust shaping sustained
Rising oil prices are the biggest risk to what is otherwise shaping up as a robust recovery. Every $1 increase in the price of oil drains about $5 billion from the U.S. economy, if sustained for a year.
fed growth half late move occur robust second summer unlikely until
Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.
assume begin half happen next
We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year.
basis believe climax continue cut fed market past risk selling
We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.
inflation
We don't have any inflation problem. The CPI was a one-time aberration.
ahead believe job loss mainly major order persist profit recession restore
We still believe that the recession will persist through the winter, mainly because major job loss looms ahead in order to restore profit margins.
capital economy expect far fed half justify near next recovery remain signs soft spending turn until
For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.
entirely initial rate rises
If the unemployment rate rises through July, as is entirely possible, the initial tightening will take place during the fall.
alan assuming believe benefits burning economy economy-and-economics extremely further greenspan impact optimistic slowing
He is extremely optimistic on technology, its impact on productivity and the benefits it has to our economy. We believe Alan Greenspan does not see any burning need to further tighten policy, assuming the economy is slowing as it has been indicating so far.
attitude believe ease fed last rather remarks testimony
Greenspan's testimony was balanced. We believe today's remarks were enough to think that the Fed will take a 'wait and see' attitude rather than ease one last time.
believe raise rates twice
I believe they are going to raise rates at least twice more after today.