Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
begun far federal problems reserve resolved terms
These problems have begun to improve, but they're far from resolved in terms of problems. So the Federal Reserve has got to keep moving.
economic fed likelihood market remove report rule stay
The market has just dodged a bullet. What this report does is remove the likelihood of a Fed tightening on Oct. 5, but we really can't rule out a tightening in November. We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
economy economy-and-economics fed october remains
The economy is still going very, very strong. I think in October the Fed will take a pass, what they do after that remains to be seen.
attitude believe ease fed last rather remarks testimony
Greenspan's testimony was balanced. We believe today's remarks were enough to think that the Fed will take a 'wait and see' attitude rather than ease one last time.
august determine federal good interest month raise rates tale whether
That's really going to tell the tale of whether the (U.S. Federal Reserve) will raise interest rates or not. It will probably determine whether August is a good month (for stocks) or not.
fed growth half late move occur robust second summer unlikely until
Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.
capital economy expect far fed half justify near next recovery remain signs soft spending turn until
For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.
complete fed inflation lack officials puts recent remarks seem
The complete lack of inflation puts the Fed in a bind. Recent remarks by Fed officials make it seem that they are hell-bent on tightening. But there is not much of a rationale that comes out of recent data.
barely core economy-and-economics great inflation literally measured past prices wholesale year
This is a great PPI number. We have literally no wholesale inflation in the U.S. economy. The PPI went down, the core PPI was unchanged, and over the past year wholesale prices measured by the core PPI are barely up at all.
core fall inflation percent year
In the first year of every recovery, inflation has fallen; and we think the core CPI will fall to 2 percent by year-end.
acquainted continuity good
They are very well acquainted with each another and I think they will have a good working relationship. So there will be continuity of policy. But still, I think Rubin's departure, at the end of the day, is still a loss.
easily gains gradually job market percent support
As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
earlier pace sector shrinking slower
The manufacturing sector is still shrinking but at a much slower pace than earlier in the year.
entirely initial rate rises
If the unemployment rate rises through July, as is entirely possible, the initial tightening will take place during the fall.