Charles Crane
Charles Crane
Charles Spencer Cranewas a businessman and politician in Hawaii...
emotional prompt remains stretched value
As long as value remains stretched in the more speculative end of technology, anything that blemishes it will prompt an emotional sell-off.
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We've seen a lot of jumping around in stocks the last three or four sessions, and I think we'll see more of the same next week.
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We've seen very satisfactory earnings growth. There's a hope that the Fed is close to the end of its tightening campaign.
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Interestingly enough, the housing stocks have been on of the strongest sectors this week. I think what's happened is that these stocks were weak prior to where we are right now in the economic cycle because of concerns about Mr. Greenspan and crew raising rates still further. Those concerns have diminished. They haven't completely gone away, but they certainly have diminished in the last few weeks as we've seen more evidence of a cooler economy. Hence, you're starting to see investors say OK, we're probably cruising in for a soft landing and housing should do well in that.
broader bull doubt high market positive rose strong yesterday
If there's any doubt about this bull market's stamina, yesterday should have quieted some of those doubts. There was no news, positive or negative, in the marketplace. And yet the Dow rose to an all-time high and the broader market was strong as well.
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I haven't heard any compelling stories to say that this is anything more than bargain hunting. We're in a period of time where investors are going to be concerned about second-quarter earnings, so I wouldn't extrapolate too much from this.
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Investors you should buy a mix of both old and new economy stocks. I don't think you should stick all of your eggs in any one style basket these days. I would also spread my risk between small stocks and large stocks.
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Any time you get more than one central banker in a room together the antennas are bound to go up and send a shiver down the market's spine.
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The irony of all this summer rally is that the more vigorous it gets the higher the odds are that Mr. Greenspan continues to tighten the screws. And whether that will then lead to a more severe hangover the next morning is what we're all wrestling with.
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The market behaved worse than most anticipated going into this period because the conditions of the economy were worse than any of us judged it to be. Earnings were revised down steadily and that kind of downward revision was not tolerated well.
enthusiasm expensive gloss good growth market overall seems supported technology value
The growth end seems expensive and the value end doesn't look good either. The overall market has been well supported by enthusiasm for technology but the gloss has been tarnished on the whole technology juggernaut.
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All of the government statistics have been far less scary than consensus expectations. (Retail sales) were weaker than anticipated and seem to be consistent with the tone.
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The market is looking beyond the event to the future and is anticipating that the Fed has done enough to achieve its goals and we will enjoy a soft landing.
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The market is extremely high-strung right now and it's going to react excessively to any news, good or bad. Next week is what I consider to be one of the market's critical weeks. It's going to be a busy week.