Charles Crane
Charles Crane
Charles Spencer Cranewas a businessman and politician in Hawaii...
bias book couple looking market news next period point positive quieter sort summer suspect technology time
I think we could re-write the book a little bit. The other sort of traditional way of looking at the market is that you get a summer rally. And I suspect that we will get a positive bias to this market at some point in time over the next couple of months. However, I do think that you're probably in that quieter period for news and developments in the technology sector.
basis couple either fed finished further points
I think they are. I think that the Fed either finished its tightening for this cycle, or it has 25 basis points to go in a couple of weeks. I do not see the Fed tightening further in August.
advice broad calls individual issues market opposed predict trying value
My broad advice is to concentrate on individual issues as opposed to trying to predict where the market is going. Making market calls is of very little value whatsoever.
cause earnings expect few negative surprises
Most analysts expect it to be a bumpy earnings season. A few negative surprises could cause a little indigestion for stocks.
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If the Fed is on the warpath with an eye to slowing the economy and trying to blunt inflation before it becomes a problem, by slowing the economy the Fed is hoping to address any imbalances between supply and demand, specifically for labor. It feels to me like the market is starting to look beyond the impact of the Fed and setting ourselves up for a second half where the wrestling match will not be between interest rates and valuations but rather between earnings and valuations.
along bond couple employment fed gold good hold last news reasonable report stocks
We've had a lot of good news in the last couple of months. Most recently, we had the Fed hold the line, we had another employment report that was reasonable and now we've had gold plunge -- all of which have been encouraging to the bond market. Stocks have come along with the bond market.
good looks market stocks
Even in an overvalued market, you'll still be able to find good stocks to buy. The market still looks okay.
glasses lining months seemed silver
Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.
anxiety area evidence fed growth high investors maybe mounting revenue robust seem technology true
There doesn't seem to be any one trigger. The idea of technology being such a high growth area is true but maybe revenue growth isn't as robust as anticipated. It's more one of anxiety by investors that evidence is mounting the Fed may need to be more aggressive.
beach bulls crossed fingers keeping next week
Next week I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the bulls will come back from the beach and do a little buying.
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News of some sort of explosion over in the Middle East was conveniently coincidental with the market downturn, so I've got to think that had something to do with it.
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Second quarter earnings are very likely to be satisfactory in aggregate. A number of visible companies have warned of disappointments, but they are the exception rather than the rule. Earnings growth will probably be in the high-teens range when everything is tallied up.
course useful
Of course I'll look at it; it will be useful information.
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The sector that will lead the pack is energy. All energy prices are high. And as one domino falls, many other tend to follow. The oil service sector will enjoy the benefits of higher oil prices too.