Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
consumer fears gasoline higher home oil prices rise spending
consumer spending has not been dented by the hurricane-inspired rise in gasoline prices and fears of higher home heating oil bills.
anecdotal consumer core costs despite energy far fed prices rising signs smoke
As far as energy prices and core consumer prices, so far it is all smoke and no fire. Rising energy costs have not yet fed into the costs of other goods, despite many anecdotal signs that prices are being impacted.
cars certainly consumer keeping pivotal quarter seem spending starting turning wheels
Cars seem to be pivotal in keeping the wheels of consumer spending turning and certainly this quarter is starting out with a thud.
cash consumers continued economy expansion hear holiday hope means next optimistic period retailers ringing sales
Consumers are more optimistic during this holiday season, and retailers hope this means that they will hear the ringing of cash registers in what has been a lackluster sales period so far. This augurs well for a continued expansion of the economy next year.
geared industrial june last next production reported unlikely
It suggests that the industrial production setback reported for June is unlikely to last and that production geared up the very next month.
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
budget budgets number quite
This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.
bonds buy economy feeling giving juice losses stock weak
Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
bonds economy eyes falling fed growing jobs keeps pickup stocks worried
All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
economy economy-and-economics hit inflation last level surprised tested upside week yields
The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.
collapse creating economy fears housing jobs market million workers year
The economy is creating over two million new jobs a year and these workers will need housing. Fears of a collapse in the housing market have been overblown.
economy energy higher inflation prices providing remains
Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.