Chris Rupkey
Chris Rupkey
businesses energy expect factor fed increased inflation interest major makers pass policy power prices pushing rates received rising sign worried
Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.
bonds economy eyes falling fed growing jobs keeps pickup stocks worried
All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.
continues economy fast fed gain growth inflation pressures slack slow stop time
Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.
action fed gone looking market moves though
Expectations of Fed action have gone though the roof. The market is looking for two 25-basis-point moves and one 50-basis-point move before the presidential election.
adding drawing fed fuel global guard market markets nearer raises rates rebound reckoning reminded stock
The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire.
assumed curve fed
The curve should be flattening if the Fed is assumed to be still tightening.
fed good guard news terms
The Fed is still going to be on guard in terms of monitoring inflationary pressures, but this has to be good news today.
anecdotal consumer core costs despite energy far fed prices rising signs smoke
As far as energy prices and core consumer prices, so far it is all smoke and no fire. Rising energy costs have not yet fed into the costs of other goods, despite many anecdotal signs that prices are being impacted.
fed leads rate series
That leads to expectations that the Fed is still going with its series of rate hikes.
geared industrial june last next production reported unlikely
It suggests that the industrial production setback reported for June is unlikely to last and that production geared up the very next month.
budget budgets number quite
This budget number is way out there; it was quite a shock.
bonds buy economy feeling giving juice losses stock weak
Stock losses are giving bonds some juice this morning; we're back to feeling that the economy is weak and that bonds are a buy here.
buyers days eager evidence expected fresh homes lock market mortgage rates taking trend
Buyers may be eager to lock in rates now as mortgage rates are expected to trend higher. Many homes go on the market in the first days of spring, and this is the first real evidence that buyers are taking a fresh look at the market.
economy economy-and-economics hit inflation last level surprised tested upside week yields
The economy surprised on the upside and inflation was a surprise on the upside so (10-year Treasury) yields tested the level we hit last week which was 5.14 percent.