Dana Telsey
Dana Telsey
Dana Telseyin New York City, New York) is the CEO and Chief Research Officer of Telsey Advisory Group. She is an American consultant and top-ranked equity research analyst covering the retail industry. Telsey has been ranked for 13 years, and was the number one ranked analyst by Institutional Investor Magazine for seven years...
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Comparison would have been even better for some of those retailers if you would have had better weather in the Northeast.
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You're getting quarterly reports and news about August sales this week, and retail stocks have also been beaten down, so you're seeing some strength in the sector. Retailers have managed their second half of the year well, which is positive for back-to-school and Christmas sales, both crucial for the sector.
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They don't have enough promotional inventories in the stores. They'll only be selling full-price and they're already giving out warnings of negative same-store sales declines in February.
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It's certainly a boon to the luxury business.
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It's certainly a boon to the luxury business. That exclusivity has made more people willing to pay full price for merchandise the moment they think they can get it, which has helped the bottom line.
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The holiday season was a little bit choppy. We started off strong, it dipped in the middle, and this last week certainly was the biggest week.
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Apparel overall is showing a mixed picture. There's been a lot of pressure on the apparel side, particularly among specialty retailers, to keep prices down but we think that situation will improve as the year goes on.
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We've had a wide variety of excuses, whether it be Princess Diana's funeral, the weather, El Nino... Bottom line is August was better than planned and it stole a little bit from the month of September.
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Typically, if rates increase, basically if we get the sense that we're more near the end of the rate increases than the beginning of the rate increases, that would certainly be a positive for our sector. Retail stocks are basically early cycle stocks. And if we get the sense that we are more near the end than at the beginning, the low valuations of these stocks will prove attractive to many investors.
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You also wonder about the reaction to the spring line.