David Resler
David Resler
capital data goods remains sector somewhat trend underlying
Overall, the data for the capital goods sector remains somewhat erratic, but the underlying trend remains upward.
capital contribute drop durable good growth healthy looked orders remains sector throughout trend
Overall, durable orders need to be looked at on a trend basis, and even after the drop in orders other than transportation orders ... the capital good sector remains very healthy and will contribute solidly to growth throughout 2006.
exactly inflation performance report several terrific
I think we can look to several more months, if not years, of this kind of performance. This is a terrific inflation report - exactly the kind of thing we all like to see.
bit capital ended front good investment last momentum optimistic view year
We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
advances businesses capacity capital choice faster obsolete preserve rates rendered true
While it's true that capacity use rates are very low, it's also true that much of that capacity has been rendered obsolete by technological advances and that replacement of capital is faster than it used to be. So a lot of businesses may feel they have little choice but to spend, if they want to preserve their competitive edge.
activity businesses half imagine improvement lean left numbers pointing satisfy second toward
Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.
evidence expect fed inflation until
We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.
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We're at the stage of the business cycle where statisticians can't keep up with rapidly changing developments, especially new businesses. That's where the greatest potential for an upward revision is.
economy-and-economics fed gets might moves psychology view
There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.
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We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.
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Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.
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Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
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We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
both camps cling couple data past
Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.