David Seiders
David Seiders
april builders couple declines economy evidence highly housing including last losing momentum numbers showing shown starting supposedly survey
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
wonder
It's really unprecedented, so you wonder if it can continue.
bolster builders buyers continue decline hold housing key limit losing major market markets measures momentum move prices reason reasons
The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.
glaring happen hottest point problems reached
It's healthy. We do need to have that happen -- gracefully, though. Affordability problems are glaring in the hottest areas. We've reached the point where something's really got to give.
builders demand incentives market marking rolling sales sort starts
The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.
housing run
It's been an unprecedented run for the housing sector.
cards despite economy housing incredibly might near piece present provided resilient risks seemed simply throw
This has been an incredibly resilient U.S. economy, and housing has been a significant piece of that. The hurricanes provided a very significant risk, but we have seemed to have come through that. Despite the risks that might be present in the near future, I'll throw my cards into this economy simply because of how it's performed.
alignment depends economy happens interest market moving rate rates
Now what happens to the market depends on the interest rate structure. Long rates have been better than expected, but I think we can see them rising, moving into alignment with what's going on with the economy and with short-term rates.
gains potential process trailing worried
I am worried about the potential for a trailing down process that gains some momentum.
january numbers permit temporary view
I view the housing-starts and permit numbers for January as a temporary burst.
delighted housing market obviously tells
I was obviously delighted to see this rebound. I think what it tells us is that the housing market is still fundamentally strong.
hidden risk
The big risk is: How many investor-owned units are there? How many hidden units will come back into the market?
sting takes weather winter
Winter weather really takes the sting out of these declines.
healthy hold last pace
We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.