David Seiders
David Seiders
bolster builders buyers continue decline hold housing key limit losing major market markets measures momentum move prices reason reasons
The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.
glaring happen hottest point problems reached
It's healthy. We do need to have that happen -- gracefully, though. Affordability problems are glaring in the hottest areas. We've reached the point where something's really got to give.
builders demand incentives market marking rolling sales sort starts
The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.
component economy element engine expecting growth move negative neutral next strong year
I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.
definitely good housing market sign
This is definitely a good sign that the housing market is stabilizing.
affect behavior blow changes consumer current enduring equity happening help hoping house people price spending view
It's when people view these changes as enduring that it really can affect their current spending behavior. I think that is happening probably, and I'm hoping that house price appreciation, the equity accumulation, will help soften the blow in consumer spending.
bolster continues exhibit favorable household housing income job market mortgage ongoing overall remain strength strong
All the fundamentals remain in place, and the overall housing market continues to exhibit ongoing strength. Favorable mortgage rates, as well as strong household income and job growth, continue to bolster housing demand.
attitude basically either healthy reports suspicion telling
I basically have a wait-and-see attitude with some healthy suspicion about this report. Either there is something that all of those other reports are not telling us, or this will get revised.
decline february housing normal returned suggesting
It is a time-tested pattern. February has essentially returned to normal conditions, suggesting to me that we will see a substantial decline in housing starts.
activity classic conditions cyclical market process rather retreat spiral
The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process from unsustainable market conditions in 2005, rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time.
basically builders changed forecasts gave months move next opportunity quarter weather
The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.
calling heck
I'm calling 2006 a simmering-down process. It's been one heck of a run.
cause dramatic lingering problems
The hurricanes did cause some dramatic problems short-term, and there are some lingering ones.
balance builders generally healthy maintained supply throughout
As they generally have done throughout 2005, builders have maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.