David Seiders
David Seiders
bolster builders buyers continue decline hold housing key limit losing major market markets measures momentum move prices reason reasons
The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.
glaring happen hottest point problems reached
It's healthy. We do need to have that happen -- gracefully, though. Affordability problems are glaring in the hottest areas. We've reached the point where something's really got to give.
builders demand incentives market marking rolling sales sort starts
The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.
component economy element engine expecting growth move negative neutral next strong year
I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.
consistent orderly process recent
The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.
focus government looking lots meaningful report step subject trends volatility
When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.
sting takes weather winter
Winter weather really takes the sting out of these declines.
healthy hold last pace
We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.
bad conditions country january parts unusually weather
We had unusually bad weather in many parts of the country in December, and the conditions in January were extraordinarily warm.
certainly inevitable rate record return seeing sign slow terms
We're certainly seeing a record rate of return in real terms (after factoring out inflation), and there has been very little sign of deceleration. But it is probably inevitable that some of this will slow down.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
attitude consumer dropped easy equity fairly fall favorable given period savings strong tax
We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.
current economic next recession
We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.
start
When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried.