David Seiders
David Seiders
alignment depends economy happens interest market moving rate rates
Now what happens to the market depends on the interest rate structure. Long rates have been better than expected, but I think we can see them rising, moving into alignment with what's going on with the economy and with short-term rates.
component economy element engine expecting growth move negative neutral next strong year
I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.
april builders couple declines economy evidence highly housing including last losing momentum numbers showing shown starting supposedly survey
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
cards despite economy housing incredibly might near piece present provided resilient risks seemed simply throw
This has been an incredibly resilient U.S. economy, and housing has been a significant piece of that. The hurricanes provided a very significant risk, but we have seemed to have come through that. Despite the risks that might be present in the near future, I'll throw my cards into this economy simply because of how it's performed.
biggest builder came drop evidence housing market peaked since somewhere survey third
There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 9/11.
builder confidence consumer december early helped interest nicely rates since
Some softening of long-term interest rates since early December helped buoy builder attitudes. Consumer confidence has rebounded nicely from post-Katrina lows.
hidden risk
The big risk is: How many investor-owned units are there? How many hidden units will come back into the market?
basically builders changed forecasts gave months move next opportunity quarter weather
The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.
attitude consumer dropped easy equity fairly fall favorable given period savings strong tax
We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.
delighted housing market obviously tells
I was obviously delighted to see this rebound. I think what it tells us is that the housing market is still fundamentally strong.
calling heck
I'm calling 2006 a simmering-down process. It's been one heck of a run.
gains potential process trailing worried
I am worried about the potential for a trailing down process that gains some momentum.
attitude basically either healthy reports suspicion telling
I basically have a wait-and-see attitude with some healthy suspicion about this report. Either there is something that all of those other reports are not telling us, or this will get revised.
activity classic cooling cycle economic housing leading levels process sort systematic toward viewed
I do have this sort of weakening of the housing sector, but I think it should be thought of as a systematic cooling down process toward sustainable levels of activity and not viewed as kind of a classic housing downswing that's part of an economic cycle leading to a recession.