David Seiders
David Seiders
begin conclude early evidence exuberance fed found growing hit housing losing mark market period seeking
The housing market is seeking out a peak. While it is still too early to conclude that it has found one, there is growing evidence that the Fed has started to hit its mark and housing will begin losing some of its exuberance in the period ahead.
few impossible inflation maintain past price seen
It was impossible to maintain double-digit price inflation like we've seen the past few years.
consistent orderly process recent
The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.
focus government looking lots meaningful report step subject trends volatility
When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.
sting takes weather winter
Winter weather really takes the sting out of these declines.
healthy hold last pace
We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.
bad conditions country january parts unusually weather
We had unusually bad weather in many parts of the country in December, and the conditions in January were extraordinarily warm.
certainly inevitable rate record return seeing sign slow terms
We're certainly seeing a record rate of return in real terms (after factoring out inflation), and there has been very little sign of deceleration. But it is probably inevitable that some of this will slow down.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
balanced buyers market switching
We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.
attitude consumer dropped easy equity fairly fall favorable given period savings strong tax
We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.
current economic next recession
We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.
start
When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried.