David Seiders
David Seiders
housing run
It's been an unprecedented run for the housing sector.
cards despite economy housing incredibly might near piece present provided resilient risks seemed simply throw
This has been an incredibly resilient U.S. economy, and housing has been a significant piece of that. The hurricanes provided a very significant risk, but we have seemed to have come through that. Despite the risks that might be present in the near future, I'll throw my cards into this economy simply because of how it's performed.
alignment depends economy happens interest market moving rate rates
Now what happens to the market depends on the interest rate structure. Long rates have been better than expected, but I think we can see them rising, moving into alignment with what's going on with the economy and with short-term rates.
gains potential process trailing worried
I am worried about the potential for a trailing down process that gains some momentum.
january numbers permit temporary view
I view the housing-starts and permit numbers for January as a temporary burst.
delighted housing market obviously tells
I was obviously delighted to see this rebound. I think what it tells us is that the housing market is still fundamentally strong.
hidden risk
The big risk is: How many investor-owned units are there? How many hidden units will come back into the market?
april builders couple declines economy evidence highly housing including last losing momentum numbers showing shown starting supposedly survey
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
continue high incredibly level numbers riding
The numbers continue to look great. We're riding at an incredibly high level here.
activity classic cooling cycle economic housing leading levels process sort systematic toward viewed
I do have this sort of weakening of the housing sector, but I think it should be thought of as a systematic cooling down process toward sustainable levels of activity and not viewed as kind of a classic housing downswing that's part of an economic cycle leading to a recession.
assessment home housing overall quarter sales sector terms third
My overall assessment of the housing sector is that we probably fundamentally topped out in the third quarter of 2005 in terms of home sales and housing production.
declines followed forecasts home housing percent sales smaller starts
Our forecasts show 6 percent to 7 percent declines in home sales and single-family housing starts in 2006, followed by smaller declines in 2007.
builder confidence consumer december early helped interest nicely rates since
Some softening of long-term interest rates since early December helped buoy builder attitudes. Consumer confidence has rebounded nicely from post-Katrina lows.
wonder
It's really unprecedented, so you wonder if it can continue.