Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
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You had a terrible day Friday with the market pricing in the reality of these events and you have a continuation of that reaction now. There are no surprises. It's pretty much across-the-board negativity.
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We expect the year to end 2 to 3 percent higher or lower than where it is now. The case for it going down is a massive run of profit taking. The case for it going up is people wanting to get a jump on the January rally.
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What companies report now is less influential than what they say about future quarters.
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We're seeing the reality of a market that does not have any great conviction. Anyone who expected a linear, 'We're off to the races' kind of tone after last week was mistaken.
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We're looking at the first day of the rest of the year and it's looking like more of the same. On an up note, there is more discussion that maybe we have worked through some of the intense negativity of late and that the disconnect between the economic data and market action may end soon.
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My sense is that you'll see a few more days of gains as a lot of money managers want to be long the market through the quarter end.
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On any given day, the market is taking its cue from forecasts and results. Juniper was negative, so that's spilling through the Nasdaq. I think, overall, though, the trend through the rest of the year and into early next year will be more positive.
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On a macro level, we are at the beginnings of an economic recovery, not as fast as some people want, and we may have some altercation with Iraq in the next six months. That uncertainty is putting the foot on the accelerator and pulling it off the accelerator at the same time.
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There's no real compelling reason for stocks to be up. But you've got little new news and there's an upward bias, so we're up today after a few days of selling.
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Profit news continues to be good, and we are seeing some relief from the profit taking of the last few weeks. But there is an ongoing tug-of-war between 'we've come too far too fast,' and 'the economic recovery is strong' and you're seeing that played out on a day-to-day basis.
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Ostensibly, the advance was caused by oil coming down and some of the comments with the beige book.
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People are trying to figure out what the real-world implications of AOL's announcement are.
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Earnings have been good, but what you're starting to see is a return to the attitude about earnings that we saw in the late 1990's, where you're seeing more talk about whisper numbers, higher expectations, and a more punitive reaction to numbers that disappoint.
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These accounting worries go right to the underpinnings of trust and confidence. If trust isn't there, you're tugging at the loose thread of a cheap polyester suit. People are worried about what other shoes are getting ready to drop.