Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
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It's always been a high-multiple stock among the retailers based on the reality of terrific business performance. Wal-Mart has many times in the last 15 years been a lousy investment possibility because it's priced so high. Our thinking is they've got to always be right.
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Profit news continues to be good, and we are seeing some relief from the profit taking of the last few weeks. But there is an ongoing tug-of-war between 'we've come too far too fast,' and 'the economic recovery is strong' and you're seeing that played out on a day-to-day basis.
drag last repeat wants
I think there is a lot of nervousness that we'll have a repeat of last time. No one wants to see this drag on like it did in 2000.
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I think there are a couple trends worth paying attention to. Number one is the re-emergence of financials. We've seen that already over the last few months. They've had a tremendous run but they're coming off such a lousy last year-and-a-half that I think it's fair to say that it hasn't really left the station. But there's a lot of whistle blowing going on. The other one is that investors are very nervous about any kind of whiff of disappointment of not meeting expectations, so there is tremendous short-term volatility going on, and that's a buying opportunity.
cue early forecasts given market next rest taking trend year
On any given day, the market is taking its cue from forecasts and results. Juniper was negative, so that's spilling through the Nasdaq. I think, overall, though, the trend through the rest of the year and into early next year will be more positive.
among anxiety bad certainly earnings economy good individual season
It actually isn't a bad day -- it's a good day for techs. I think the most important thing is that earnings season is going pretty well. A lot of this is perception, and the economy may not be robust, but it's not sick. There's certainly a lot of anxiety out there among individual investors.
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The CA investigation is an ongoing thing. They've had problems long before accounting scrutiny was fashionable, so the impact of that is muted. There is the sense that the market wants to shrug off the bad news.
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I think as the year goes on there is going to be more conviction about an economic recovery. I think the market's sort of sideways with an upside bias at least for the next couple of months. I think we'll have a nice fourth quarter.
market time wanting
I think that there is an upward bias. The market for the first time in a long while is wanting to go up.
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The market is in a wait-and-see mode. It's waiting for confirmation of an economic recovery, some kind of resolution on Iraq and on what the Federal Reserve is going to do in its meeting this month.
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However, the rising of interest rates from the current abysmal levels wouldn't be a bad thing, as it would be happening because of positive reasons, because the economy is strengthening.
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My sense is that you'll see a few more days of gains as a lot of money managers want to be long the market through the quarter end.
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Ostensibly, the advance was caused by oil coming down and some of the comments with the beige book.
expect gains next seeing
I expect we will be seeing those kind of normative gains next year.