Douglas Altabef
Douglas Altabef
given investors people prospect rally reality telling three today
Three years ago people actually thought that the Dow could go to 36,000 and it did the opposite. It's when people have really given up on the prospect of a real rally that you see a real rally, but try telling that to most investors now. Three years ago there was no reality dose, today there's no perspective.
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The real issue is that energy prices keep rising -- it's like an invisible tax on the market and the consumer.
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We're seeing the reality of a market that does not have any great conviction. Anyone who expected a linear, 'We're off to the races' kind of tone after last week was mistaken.
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We're looking at the first day of the rest of the year and it's looking like more of the same. On an up note, there is more discussion that maybe we have worked through some of the intense negativity of late and that the disconnect between the economic data and market action may end soon.
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I think that there is an upward bias. The market for the first time in a long while is wanting to go up.
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People are trying to figure out what the real-world implications of AOL's announcement are.
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It actually isn't a bad day -- it's a good day for techs. I think the most important thing is that earnings season is going pretty well. A lot of this is perception, and the economy may not be robust, but it's not sick. There's certainly a lot of anxiety out there among individual investors.
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The market is in a wait-and-see mode. It's waiting for confirmation of an economic recovery, some kind of resolution on Iraq and on what the Federal Reserve is going to do in its meeting this month.
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The potential is that there could have been a surprise that could have influenced the Fed next Tuesday, and clearly that hasn't happened. But employment is a lagging indicator. So the report is not a reflection of where the economy is going, but where it's been.