Gerald Cohen
Gerald Cohen
Gerald Allan "Jerry" Cohen, FBAwas a Marxist political philosopher who held the positions of Quain Professor of Jurisprudence, University College London and Chichele Professor of Social and Political Theory, All Souls College, Oxford. Born into a communist family in Montreal, Cohen was educated at McGill University, Canadaand the University of Oxfordwhere he studied under Isaiah Berlin and Gilbert Ryle...
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But whether payrolls come in at minus 10,000 or plus 10,000, it won't tell you that much.
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If prices are rising in response to a pickup in global demand, that's a good sign for the economy. Though it does impart a drag on the economy, you don't feel it as much.
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Inventory levels are lean, meaning companies will need to pick up production.
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Goods prices are deflating and continue to deflate, but services prices are by no means deflating. Overall, prices continue to rise, so I'm not concerned about deflation.
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How much freedom I have depends on the number and nature of my options. And that, in turn, depends both on the rules of the game and on the assetts of the players: it is a very important and widely neglected truth that it does not depend on the rules of the game alone.
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These numbers give you pause. The ISM and the fact that jobless claims continue to rise suggest there continues to be job loss.
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The claims have not been low enough to merit cheering, but the direction has been generally positive, and that's the first step.
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The Chicago PMI, along with other mixed data we've been getting, points, in my mind, to a turning point, ... But you have to be careful reading too much into this -- it's a survey of 200 firms in the Chicago area with a 50 percent response rate. I think we're at a turning point and will get a rebound, but the strength of that rebound is still in question.
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I think the Fed is on hold tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. We've actually been proponents of the view for quite a while that the economy was going to moderate, and it was important for the Fed to be patient. And one of the dangers was if the Fed kept raising rates, that they would slow the economy a lot more than they would want. So we think that there are enough signs of moderation that the Fed will remain on hold, and we think that signs of moderation will continue. So we think the Fed will be on hold through the end of this year and into early next year.
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The core is up 0.3 percent over the last year, and so there really is no inflation, ... In the first year of recoveries, consumer price inflation tends to fall as it did in the past 40 years. We believe inflation should not be an issue for the foreseeable future.
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We believe earnings momentum should turn strongly positive by the second quarter, but earnings gains in 2002 are unlikely to come close to reversing the collapse in 2001.
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What group often combines a keen sense of humor with bad taste? ... College students.