Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
comments conclude decline fairly fed however interest led meeting oil raise rates upbeat
The combination of a decline in oil prices, however slight, and some fairly upbeat comments (by Fed officials), may have led Fed watchers to conclude the Fed may raise interest rates at its meeting in May, and then stop.
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The underlying theme that's been driving the market is that inflation is a problem and the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates, and that's not good news.
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Every time (crude prices) move toward $50, it raises serious questions about the economy and earnings in 2005.
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I think it's a bygone conclusion that they will raise rates in January, but there's also debate about whether they'll raise rates in March.
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I don't think it changes anything for Federal Reserve policy. Various early warning signs of inflation are still telling us they have to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and they are likely to do so when they meet next week.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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It's very clear that higher energy prices are now being passed along to consumers, and it's not difficult to do that when the economy is as strong as it is. This will put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue to raise short-term interest rates.
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It's a reasonably accepted conclusion that the Fed will raise rates in both June and August; that's what the market has discounted. I don't know if Friday's employment report will change that, no matter what it says.
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If the Fed raises rates three times, they're not doing it just to have fun. Life is good.
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The market is worried that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates well into 2006 and possibly make a policy mistake. If you look at housing starts they're very strong. Everyone knows the unemployment rate is low and the Fed is uncomfortable with that.
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I like the large-cap technology names. Over a three- to five-year period they are going to be real winners.
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Speaking of financial markets as a whole --stocks, bonds and the dollar -- 'volatile' is not strong enough a word to describe them.
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Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.
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Everything is connected but it is anyone's guess how long the phenomena will continue.