Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.
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I tell my clients to look at the market once a week. It does a lot for your judgment if you take away the day-to-day swings.
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It is encouraging that the market has been able to hold together. The overall message is that the events in Southeast Asia will in time have an impact on the U.S. economy, but not a major impact in 1998. And that is really good news.
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Ordinarily, we would have a technical bounce at this level. But then the question is, have you seen a bear market bottom? I don't know if we have at this point.
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There are a growing number of investors who believe the market has hit bottom. Investors with cash are feeling pressure to get in. Good markets beget good markets.
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Today the market is pausing a bit, given the strong performance last week. There is lot of acquisition activity, which is giving the market some lift, particularly because oil prices are stable.
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Today the market is pausing a bit, given the strong performance last week.
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Usually, when you have a stock market mania, it's driven largely by individual investors borrowing money to buy stocks at prices that are too high. And usually, when a bubble becomes unwound, it's because of margin calls.
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When you see buying in that (technology) sector in a bear market, it implies that there are investors out there who see improvement around the corner, and it's usually technology and cyclical stocks that lead the market out of a downtrend. The bias towards Friday's data may be that the data will be consistent with the view that the economy is showing some expansion.
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Tomorrow, the market will probably continue upward driven by the dollar, but it won't go up much because of caution before the employment figures.
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What we're seeing from Lehman is that market conditions improved through the summer, and that conditions are likely to continue improving. That's showing up in the earnings and in the detail of their reports.
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When you say the stock market is overvalued, you imply that the stock market is going down. But there is a touch of lunacy in every bull market -- stocks can become even more overvalued. A rational investment policy in an irrational world is suicide.