Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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I think everybody knew this before, but this kind of takes it from the back page and moves it to the front page, ... He certainly carries a lot of weight in the market.
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You had a pretty good move in biotech this year, and biotech really has quite frankly lifted the health care and the drug stocks recently because investors have become somewhat defensive -- say in the last month or so -- and have also, on a relative basis, performed fairly well.
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Every time (crude prices) move toward $50, it raises serious questions about the economy and earnings in 2005.
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We had a very solid move up in stocks in the first quarter. There's a good chance that what the markets will be left with is a great deal of uncertainty or even the belief that more rate increases are coming.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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This is a market that's become very, very defensive, ... One thing I noticed is a move back to the defensive side.
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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I think we're going to edge our way higher but I don't think it's going to be a barn burning.
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I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.